In The News

Apr 8, 2024

Author: Krista Swanson

Motor gasoline use is expected to decline in the future even under a baseline case, but new tailpipe emissions rules really put the pedal to the metal – rapidly accelerating that process. This would be a major shock on demand for corn used to produce ethanol spurring potentially devastating impacts on farmers and the rural economy.       The New Tailpipe Emissions Rule The Environmental Protection Agency recently released its final rule for multi-pollutant emissions standards for model years 2027 and later light-duty and medium-duty vehicles with heavy reliance on the use of electric vehicles. The ruling dictates that sales of non-electric vehicles will drop from over 92% of new vehicle sales in 2023[i] to under 30% of new vehicle sales in 2032. In the EPA central scenario, that translates to a 6.9-billion-gallon reduction in motor gasoline use in 2032, a 5.7% decline from the baseline projection for that year. Motor gasoline use is expected to decline in the baseline, but...

Feb 16, 2024

Key Issues: Production

Author: Krista Swanson

USDA released the Grains and Oilseeds Outlook this week providing an initial look at the 2024/25 marketing year projections that include lower production, greater domestic use, increased exports, and higher ending stocks as compared to the current 2023/24 market years. The following is a summary and some additional context for five projections from the latest outlook.   Yield Corn yield is projected at 181 bushels per acre. Yield projections depend on the modeling approach and time series used. While a 3.7 bushel per acre increase over the 2023 record 177.3 bushels per acre may seem like a stretch, a regression on annual yields from 2023 to several different historical points including 1934, 1980, and 1996 all predict 2024 yields within about one bushel of the USDA projection.   Trendline yields are a reasonable expectation at this point. Adverse weather is generally thought to have a negative impact on yields but in 2023 a record yield was achieved in a year with widespread...

Feb 9, 2024

Key Issues: Trade

Author: Krista Swanson

A combination of climate, conflict, and currency values are factors in cost competitiveness that impacts transits and overall U.S. corn exports.   Climate Climate conditions brought widespread drought to the United States Corn Belt in 2023. Dry conditions in the Mississippi River basin led to record low water levels. As a result, barge weight and traffic restrictions were imposed, and the 7.7 million tons of corn moved by barge on the Mississippi River in 2023 was 30% lower than 2022 and 54% lower than 2021. Ultimately, the cost of added time and weight restrictions were factors contributing to a higher corn price at port but also meant pace of getting grain to the port was slowed.   Climate-induced waterway challenges for U.S. corn don’t end at the Gulf. Extreme drought has forced substantial scaleback of shipping through the Panama Canal, a key global maritime channel. The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) has reduced traffic to 24 ships a day, about two-thirds of the normal...

Dec 1, 2023

Key Issues: TradeTransportation and Infrastructure

Author: Krista Swanson

For the second year in a row, drought conditions are impacting transportation on the Mississippi River at the peak shipment point of the year. Shallower river levels mean barge weight restrictions, slower barge traffic, and higher costs to ship commodities on the river. Ultimately, this translates to a relatively lower price at the farmgate and higher cost for the world buyer.   Drought Slows Grain Barge Traffic in 2022 and 2023 The Mississippi River is an important channel for commodity transportation. The USDA reports the final mode of transport was barge for 13% of U.S. grains in 2020, and 46% of exported U.S. grains[i]. There are normally two peaks in grain barge movements, one in late summer leading up to the end of the marketing year for corn and soybeans, and the other emerging in the fall harvest season and into the post-harvest months.   The impact of low water levels on grain barge movements was notable in 2023, marking the second consecutive year of drought...

Mar 8, 2021

Author: Dave Buchholz

Farmers and other agricultural advocates who were unable to participate in the 2021 Special Edition of Commodity Classic can still take advantage of the more than 50 educational sessions that were offered during last week’s online event.  Every session is now available on-demand.   Registration for on-demand access is available through Friday, March 12.  Thanks to generous sponsor support, farmers can register at no charge.  The cost is $20 for all other registrants.   Once registered, you will be able to view any of the sessions on-demand through April 30, 2021.  Registration is available at CommodityClassic.com. A complete list of sessions is also available on this website.   Highlights include a keynote address from USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack, a conversation between the farmer-leaders of the four commodity associations that present Commodity Classic, as well as the ag chair of the Association of Equipment Manufacturers, and executive roundtables featuring top agribusiness...

Mar 4, 2021

Author: Dave Buchholz

The 2021 Special Edition of Commodity Classic—delivered digitally—is attracting nationwide and worldwide participation this week.  As of Wednesday morning, March 4, the total number of attendees was approaching 6,000—with more than 4,000 farms represented.  Attendees from 49 states and 24 countries are taking part in the first-ever digital version of America’s largest farmer-led, farmer-focused agricultural and educational experience, which began at noon Central on Tuesday, March 2.   The online event continues through 12:30 p.m. Central, Friday, March 5. Registrations are still being accepted at CommodityClassic.com.  A complete schedule of events is also available on that website.   The remaining schedule includes several Learning Center Sessions, What’s New Sessions, an Executive Roundtable, and a program on dealing with mental stress on the farm.  The 2021 Special Edition of Commodity Classic ends Friday, March 5 with the Closing General Session featuring a live keynote...

Mar 1, 2021

Author: Dave Buchholz

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack will provide the keynote address during the Closing General Session of the 2021 Special Edition of Commodity Classic, which is being delivered digitally March 2-5, 2021. The Secretary’s remarks will take place on Friday, March 5 from 11:30 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. Central.   “We’re thrilled to welcome Secretary Vilsack back to Commodity Classic,” said John Linder, an Ohio farmer and president of the National Corn Growers Association. “He always provides an experienced, deep-inside-Washington perspective. With so much going on in our nation’s capital that impact their lives, the audience will be eager to hear his thoughts on the top issues facing our growers such as trade, renewable fuels, and regulatory initiatives.”   “Secretary Vilsack has been a strong voice and advocate for agriculture, and we’re looking forward to his joining us once again at Commodity Classic,” said Kevin Scott, a South Dakota farmer and president of the American...

Feb 23, 2021

Author: Dave Buchholz

Commodity Classic, in partnership with the National Association of Farm Broadcasters, has produced a powerful podcast program dealing with farm stress and mental health. The program entitled “Mental Health on the Farm” features four panelists, each with a unique and personal perspective on the issue.   The podcast is now available at CommodityClassic.com. The program is available as a full-length podcast for download (49 minutes) or in four individual episodes ranging in length from 11 to 13 minutes that can be played right on the Commodity Classic website.  Several radio stations across the Midwest will also be airing the program and/or offering it on their streaming or podcast platforms this week.   The program panelists include:   Ted Matthews, a rural mental health professional from Minnesota with more than 30 years’ experience;  Adrienne DeSutter, an Illinois farm wife who holds a master's degree in counseling;  Lowell Neitzel, a Kansas farmer who shares his story of...

Feb 22, 2021

Author: Dave Buchholz

Commodity Classic’s pivot from a live show—originally scheduled to take place in San Antonio— to a digital online format has created some unique opportunities, according to the two farmers who are co-chairing the 2021 Special Edition of Commodity Classic.   The 2021 Special Edition of Commodity Classic features more than 50 educational sessions that will be delivered digitally direct to farmers across the nation and around the world March 2-5, 2021. Registration is open at CommodityClassic.com and the first 5,000 farmers to register can do so at no charge.   Anthony Bush, an Ohio corn farmer and co-chair of the 2021 Commodity Classic, said this year’s digital event provides a platform for the event to bring together top agribusiness executives for a series of live, first-ever Executive Roundtables. “We will hear from CEOs from various stakeholders in our industry. I'm not sure what other venue would exist that we would be able to do this. I think that's going to be pretty...

Feb 19, 2021

Author: Dave Buchholz

With his pending return to the position of U.S. Secretary of Agriculture, Tom Vilsack may also be returning to Commodity Classic as the keynote speaker during one of its 2021 General Sessions.   Commodity Classic has extended an official invitation to Secretary-nominee Vilsack to speak with attendees during the 2021 Special Edition of Commodity Classic during the Closing General Session from 11:30 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. Central on Friday, March 5.    Vilsack has spoken at several Commodity Classic events over the years while he served with USDA under the Obama Administration.    Due to COVID-19 restrictions, this year’s Commodity Classic is being delivered digitally online March 2-5, 2021.     Registration for the 2021 Special Edition is available at CommodityClassic.com. Thanks to the generous support of sponsors, the first 5,000 farmers who register can do so at no charge.  All other attendees can register for $20. Registration includes access to the entire week’s program as...