USDA Prospective Plantings Bearish on Corn Acres, NCGA Notes (3-31-06)

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) today released its “Prospective Plantings” report predicting a 5 percent reduction in corn acres, the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) notes.

The 78.019 million acre corn forecast was well below other analysts’ preannouncement estimates. As anticipated, the Chicago Board of Trade corn futures markets rose dramatically. May and July corn contracts opened 14 ¼ and 13 ¼ cents higher. Last year, corn growers planted 81.7 million acres.

“Higher corn prices may still bid some additional acres into corn, as most farmers in the Midwest have not started planting,” said Paul Bertels, NCGA director of biotechnology.

This report also included state-by-state estimates. In the Corn Belt, estimates were mixed. Acres planted are expected to be down compared with 2005 in the following states:

Iowa, 12.5 million (300,000 less than 2005)
Illinois, 11.4 million (-700,000)
Nebraska, 8.2 million (-300,000)
Indiana, 5.5 million (-400,000)
South Dakota, 4.4 million (-50,000)
Kansas, 3.35 million (-300,000)
Ohio, 3.15 (-300,000)
Missouri, 2.75 million (-350,000)
Michigan, 2.15 million (100,000)
Kentucky, 1.07 million (-180,000)

States in the South and Southeast are showing the largest percentage decreases:

Texas, 1.7 million (down 17 percent from 2005)
Tennessee 530,000 (-18 percent)
Mississippi 330,000 (-13 percent)
Louisiana 280,000 (-18 percent)
Georgia 260,000 (-4 percent)
Arkansas 160,000 (-33 percent)

“Dry weather, high input costs, and more cropping alternatives are responsible for the decreases in the South and Southeast,” Bertels said.

Meanwhile, Minnesota and Colorado acres are unchanged at 7.3 and 1.1 million, respectively. North Dakota posted a 17 percent increase at 1.65 million acres.

The report is USDA’s first official estimate of 2006-07 acres. The department will issue its final estimate in the “Acres” report published on June 30.