 |
| Ideal growing
conditions could lead to a record yield of 143.3 bushels per
acre this year, according to PRX estimates. Chart courtesy PRX. |
NCGA
Consultant Estimates Record Corn Crop and Yield in 2004(7-7-04)
The release of the U.S. Department of Agriculture
(USDA) June acreage report last week has spurred speculation on
whether this year’s crop will surpass 2003’s record
production of 10.114 billion bushels.
The ProExporter Network (PRX), a Kansas City-based
consulting firm, is among those who believe this fall’s corn
crop will indeed set new production marks. If this summer’s
favorable growing conditions persist, PRX estimates the 2004 crop
will be at least 10.516 billion bushels. The latest PRX numbers
also indicate a slight increase in yield from 142.2 bushels per
acre last year to 143.3 in 2004, which would also be a new record.
“Perfect weather through July and August could
boost the yield even further,” said PRX’s Bill Hudson.
Silking is well ahead of normal and the long-term weather forecast
is unlikely to be as extremely hot and dry as last year, Hudson
said.
Economists are optimistic about this year’s
crop after USDA released its June 30 acreage report, which estimates
81 million acres were seeded to corn this year. USDA’s March
planting intentions report forecasted 79 million corn acres, but
near-perfect conditions enabled a significant increase in corn plantings,
Hudson said.
“Rarely, if ever, has there been such a large
change from the March intentions to the June acreage report for
the planted area of corn,” Hudson said, adding that PRX’s
corn production estimate “could obviously get much bigger
with continued perfect, cool weather.”
PRX estimates
U.S. corn exports will increase slightly to 1.927 billion bushels,
or nearly 19 percent of the total crop. Industrial use, including
corn for ethanol, is forecasted to increase to about 2.65 billion
bushels, or 25 percent of the crop. Livestock feed and residual
use will remain as the top use of U.S. corn, consuming an estimated
54 percent of the 2004 crop.
Hudson said export demand may increase, depending
on certain international economic variables. “Most people
are assuming 2004-2005 demand is all set to be just about as perfect
as the weather so far, but we have adopted rather low numbers for
U.S. corn exports until more proof comes from China business,”
he said.