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| According to USDA’s Aug. 2 crop progress report, 7 percent of the U.S. corn crop has reached the denting stage. |
Predictions
of Record Corn Crop and Yield Continue as Ideal Weather Conditions
Persist (8-6-04)
As the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prepares to release its updated
crop production report Aug. 12, predictions of a record corn crop and record
yields continue to circulate throughout the Corn Belt.
While USDA’s July report estimated a record crop of 10.635 billion bushels
harvested on 73.4 million acres, many analysts say near-ideal weather conditions
in parts of the Midwest during the past month are likely to drive that estimate
even higher. Some news stories have reported forecasts of an 11-million-bushel
crop; such a crop would require a national average yield of nearly 150 bushels
per acre – a 5 percent increase over the long-run trend yield.
As reported in the High Plains Journal,
F.C. Stone, an Iowa-based brokerage house, is projecting this year’s crop at a record 10.982 billion bushels.
According to AgWeb, Informa Economics (formerly Sparks Companies) is estimating
the corn crop at 10.863 billion bushels. Other projections, such as ProExport
(PRX) Network’s estimated 10.736-billion-bushel crop, are slightly more
conservative.
F.C. Stone estimates an average
yield of 149.1 bushels per acre, while Informa calculates yield at 148.1
bushels per acre and PRX is forecasting a 146.3-bushel-per-acre
yield. Last year’s record-setting national average was 142.2 bushels
per acre.
According to PRX estimates, Illinois is likely to unseat Iowa as the top corn
producing state in 2004. Thanks to near-perfect growing conditions, Illinois
is on target to produce 1.991 billion bushels, up 9 percent from last year.
Iowa is expected to experience a 1 percent decline in production from 1.884
billion to 1.874 billion bushels, according to PRX. Early flooding required
widespread replanting in Iowa, and unseasonably cool weather slowed crop development
in areas across the state.
North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska,
Kansas, Colorado, Texas, Indiana and Missouri all are expected to post significantly
higher production totals this
year than in 2003, according to PRX data. Conversely, the corn crop in Wisconsin,
Michigan and Ohio is forecasted to be short of last year’s production
levels.
USDA’s Aug. 2 crop progress
report shows 84 percent of the corn crop has reached the silking stage, 3
percentage points ahead of last year. Corn
doughing advanced to 28 percent complete, compared to just 16 percent last
year. Denting was 7 percent complete, 3 percentage points ahead of 2003.