PRX's Hudson Predicts 'Record Yield' in 2003 Corn Production (7-11-03)
Despite flooding in the eastern Corn Belt and areas of dryness remaining
throughout the nation, ProExporter (PRX) President Bill Hudson said
this year's corn crop has the potential to break the harvest record
of 138.6 bushels per acre set in 1994. Hudson, who is slated to speak
July 15 on the current natural gas/fertilizer crisis (see http://www.ncga.com/news/notd/2003/july/070903.htm)
at the National Corn Growers Association's semi annual Corn Congress
in Washington, D.C., said it's all a matter of predicting the unpredictable.
"If the rest of the season behaves, it should be a record yield
of 140 or better," he said. Some people, such as Dr. Bill Tierney
(Professor in the Department of Ag Economics at Kansas State University),
who is probably one of the best at using the crop condition rating
and its correlation to the final yield, has predicted 144 at this
stage."
Referencing USDA's June
30 report, Hudson has projected this season's corn harvest could
yield 10 billion bushels. "The crop is off
to a good start," said NCGA Interim Director of Production and
Stewardship Dr. Robert McIntyre, "but July and August rains
across the Corn Belt will determine the eventual size of the 2003
crop."
Hudson said he looks primarily
at three types of models to predict yields: reports generated by
(PRX), those generated by Tierney, and
satellite reports. "Our reports are based on past experience
and various reports we receive and we're predicting 140. We've been
doing this a long time and our track record is pretty good.
"The question right now is: What about the wetness in the eastern
Corn Belt?" Hudson continued. "The satellite model has
yields in that area less than we do, because it bases predictions
on how the plant looks now and right now, the plants are awfully
wet.
"Now, the crop condition
ratings are done by county agents who call into the state offices
every Monday with their assessment.
The state office then puts it into a number, representing so much
poor, so much fair, so much good, etc. On the basis of those reports,
it appears the county agents are impressed with the fact there is
plenty of water and the crop is doing well, even though there is
flooding in the east."
Based on those reports,
said Hudson, "it's clear to us and
clear to everybody that if it doesn't turn warm and sunshiney over
the eastern Corn Belt, they won't achieve what the trends predict.
But most of the rest of the Corn Belt is off to an incredible start."