INCREASED YIELD, PRODUCTION FORECASTS NEGATIVELY IMPACT CORN PRICE ESTIMATES

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(Posted Wed. Aug 12th, 2015)

U.S corn production estimates issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture today were raised by 156 million bushels from last month’s estimate, reflecting an increased yield forecast resulting from the first survey-based yield estimate. With 2015/16 corn supplies forecast to reach a record 15.5 billion bushels, the projected average corn price was lowered by roughly 10 cents per bushel.

 

“U.S. corn farmers are proving, yet again, their superiority in producing an abundant crop, one which can meet all needs, despite somewhat unfavorable weather conditions during planting,” said National Corn Growers Association President Chip Bowling, a farmer from Newburg, Maryland. “At NCGA, we certainly see how this ability to excel can impact us negatively in terms of lower prices for our final crop. We are working diligently to grow the demand and thus optimize the ways in which our crop benefits U.S. farmers, citizens and our customers abroad.”

 

In this first report utilizing survey-based data, the average yield forecast was raised to 168.8 bushels per acre, two bushels per acre higher than trend-based projection issued the month prior. Total production of 13.7 billion bushels will be down from 2014 corn production of 14.2 billion bushels, but the total supply for 2015/2016 is forecast to set a record at 15.5 billion bushels, 154 million bushels higher than projected in July.

  

In its report, USDA projected ending stocks for 2014/2015 to be 1.77 billion bushels, a 6 million bushel decrease from last month’s forecast on higher use projections. The revisions are the result of increases of the forecast corn use in sweeteners as well as ethanol production, with projected 2015/2016 demand raised by 25 million bushels given the latest gasoline consumption forecast from the Energy Information Agency.

 

Given stock and production revisions, USDA continues to estimate the average farm price for 2015/2016 at $3.35 to $3.95 per bushel, a 10-cent decrease from July’s report.

 

Click here for the whole report.