USDA REPORTS INDICATE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO 2012 CORN CROP ESTIMATES

JANUARY 2013

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(Posted Fri. Jan 11th, 2013)

Jan. 11: The 2012 corn crop looked significantly like what forecasts indicated over the past few months, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture reports released today. Slight increases to the national average yield positively impacted overall corn production estimates for 2012, however, with the total one percent higher than indicated previously, for a total production of 10.8 billion bushels.

National average corn yields for 2012 were revised slightly higher to a new estimate of 123.4 billion bushels per acre. While slightly higher, the yield average clearly illustrates the toll taken on the 2012 crop by the drought with yields 23.8 bushels below the 2011 average of 147.2. The areas hardest hit by the drought, including Kentucky, Illinois and Indiana, saw significantly lower average yields than in 2011, declining by 17, 52 and 47 bpa respectively. Iowa, Missouri and Ohio all saw average yields decrease by 35 or more bpa from the 2011 crop also.

The amount of corn stored overall sits lower than at this time in 2011 by 17 percent for a total of 8.03 billion bushels. While corn stored on-farm sits a full 26 percent lower, this was partially offset as corn stored off-farm sits only one percent lower than at this time in 2011.

Ending stocks estimates were revised to 602 million bushels, 44 million bushels lower than the previous estimate. Feed and residual use projections were raised 300 million bushels, for a total of 4.45 billion bushels, on projected increases in beef pork and poultry production. This was offset to a large degree as export demand forecasts were lowered by 200 million bushels.

The season-average farm price held stable at $6.80 to $8.00 per bushel, steadied by forecasts for a strong corn crop in South America.

For the complete USDA Annual Crop Production report for 2012, click here.

For the January grains stocks report, click here.

For the complete global supply and demand report, click here.